Rocket Lab Has a New Rival — With a New Rocket

On Tuesday, Nov. 5, Rocket Lab (RKLB 0.37%) launched its 12th rocket of the year, using a two-stage Electron launch vehicle to put a mysterious payload for a secret (commercial) customer into orbit. The successful mission set a new record for launch cadence for the New Zealand rocket launcher — 12 launches in just over 10 months, versus 10 launches in 12 months in 2023. And with nearly two months remaining in the year, there’s time for Rocket Lab to grow its launch rate even more.

Which it certainly should try to do. Because over here on the other side of the world, a new space rival is rising. It’s already got one rocket bigger than Rocket Lab’s Electron, and is working on a second rocket (and a third!) that will both be bigger than Rocket Lab’s up-and-coming Neutron rocket.

This new rival’s name: Firefly Aerospace.

Firefly’s flight record

Firefly has launched a total of five separate rockets since September 2021, not all of which have been successful. (The company’s webpage lists “past missions,” but does not clearly state which past flights succeeded in all their objectives, and which… didn’t.) Despite the mixed record, however, the company has succeeded in racking up an impressive list of customers, and a sizable number of contracts for future launches.

Late last month I had the opportunity to talk over the company’s launch manifest and future plans with new Firefly CEO Jason Kim. In addition to the upcoming Elytra launch later this year, about which I’ve written previously, Kim revealed that Firefly has contracts signed with Lockheed Martin (LMT 2.31%) to perform 25 missions for the defense giant, and a further 23 launches for rival defense concern L3Harris (LHX 2.27%).

In addition, Firefly recently announced plans to launch three missions between 2025 and 2027 for space company True Anomaly, using Firefly Alpha rockets to put its customer’s “autonomous orbital vehicles” (i.e., space tugs) in orbit.

Bigger and better rockets

Firefly boasts a big book of business for its current Alpha-class rocket, which with a one-ton payload to low Earth orbit, outclasses Rocket Lab’s Electron by a factor of three. But Rocket Lab has a new rocket under development, Neutron, which will be able to put 13 tons into orbit — and be reusable.

Designed primarily to compete with larger rockets such as SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Arianespace’s Ariane 6, Neutron would incidentally put Firefly’s Alpha in the shade. In my discussion with Kim, therefore, I was curious to learn about Firefly’s own plans to build larger rockets — and he did not disappoint.

Over the years, Firefly has discussed multiple ideas for building bigger rockets than Alpha. In When the Heavens Went on Sale, for example, space journalist Ashlee Vance described a “Beta” rocket that Firefly originally planned to succeed Alpha. More recently, Kim’s predecessor as CEO, Bill Weber, had spoken of a project to help Northrop Grumman (NOC 1.62%) build an “Antares 330” medium launch vehicle, as well as to develop a medium launch vehicle of Firefly’s own (one with the working title “Medium Launch Vehicle,” or MLV).

Turns out, all of these projects are still go for launch, albeit in reshuffled form.

Antares 330, a rocket with a Firefly first stage topped by a Northrop second stage, should be the first to see light of day, with an inaugural launch in mid-2026. Soon after, Firefly will unveil its homegrown MLV. Both launch vehicles will sport payloads to LEO of about 16 tons — more than Neutron but less than Falcon 9 or Ariane 6. Both rockets will be launching concurrently, too. But over time, Kim anticipates Northrop to “pivot” in favor of launches on MLV.

Meanwhile, Alpha will stick around to handle smaller payloads.

More than just rockets

Firefly’s other space projects, previously described, remain similarly on track. Of particular note, Firefly will attempt to launch its Blue Ghost-1 (BG1) spacecraft later this year, and land it on the moon in early 2025. One year later, the company has a contract to send a Blue Ghost-2 (BG2) spacecraft in its predecessor’s footsteps. Boosted by a more powerful “Elytra Dark” space tug, BG2 will carry a bigger payload — and earn Firefly a bigger paycheck.

Whereas NASA contracted to pay $93 million for BG1, BG2 will cost it $112 million.

Speaking of Elytra, well, we’ve already spoken quite a bit about Elytra, and its three variants of increasing size — Dawn, Dusk, and Dark. One factor Kim added to this discussion, though, is that instead of calling these spacecraft “space tugs,” he prefers to refer to them as “multi-mission orbital vehicles” — a term that has significance. Boasting substantial power and fuel reserves that give these craft high Delta-V (basically, speed and maneuverability in space), Elytra will be able to perform all sorts of missions in orbit beyond simply tugging satellites hither and thither.

Kim described how, for example, an Elytra equipped with a communications payload for the Space Force’s Proliferated Warfare Space Architecture program might also demonstrate new missions under Space Force’s related Hybrid Acquisition for Proliferated LEO program. Working initially as part of a constellation of comsats, but also being able to maneuver (if another satellite goes out of service, for example, an Elytra comsat could move in orbit to take its place), it is effectively self-healing the network.

Is Firefly the next Rocket Lab?

Tally it all up, and what do we have here in Firefly? A rocket launcher with rockets similar in size to Rocket Lab’s, both those already in operation and those still on the drawing board. A spaceship producer that’s building space tugs — er, multi-mission orbital vehicles — much like Rocket Lab’s own Photon spacecraft. And a lunar contractor, which is aiming to land on the moon, a mission even Rocket Lab hasn’t yet attempted.

Could Firefly end up becoming a space stock worth investing in, just like Rocket Lab has become (and like SpaceX frustratingly refuses to become)? Perhaps. All we need now is an IPO to find out.