Why Ford Motor Company Stock Crashed 9% After Earnings


Ford stock would look cheap — if it just stopped losing money on EVs.

Ford Motor Company (F -8.97%) stock slid 8.9% through 10:40 a.m. ET Tuesday despite beating on the both top and bottom lines in its earnings report last night.

Heading into earnings, analysts forecast the automotive giant would earn $0.47 per share on $41.9 billion. In fact, Ford reported a profit of $0.49 (adjusted for one-time items), and its revenue exceeded expectations as well — $46.2 billion.

Ford stock by the numbers

So that’s the good news — top- and bottom-line beats. Now, here’s the bad: Ford didn’t really earn $0.49 per share at all.

Because of a $1 billion charge-off for its money-losing Model e electric vehicles division, Ford’s actual net income for the quarter was just $0.22 per share. This was less than half its “adjusted” profit and a 27% decline from last year, despite sales growing more than 5% year over year. On the plus side, free cash flow does appear to have improved. Ford reported $3.2 billion in adjusted free cash flow, and over the last 12 months, its FCF number is about $6.4 billion, nearly twice its reported $3.5 billion in net income.

At a more granular level, Ford’s biggest division, Ford Blue (which sells trucks to consumers) grew sales 3% year over year. Model 3 sales tumbled 33%. Only Ford Pro, which sells to commercial and government customers, saw significant sales growth — 13% — and with profit margins roughly twice those of sales to ordinary truck buyers — 11.6%.

Is Ford stock a buy?

Turning to guidance, Ford declined to predict what generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) profits it will earn this year, but said operating profits should be about $10 billion, and adjusted free cash flow about 75% of that — $8 billion. Valued on the former, Ford stock costs about 4.3 times 2024 operating earnings, and 5.4x FCF.

The stock’s generous 5.3% dividend yield alone should probably justify either of those valuations. If Ford can just get its earnings growing again (for example, by exiting the money-losing EV venture), I’d have little hesitation about calling this stock a buy.

Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.



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