Opendoor Technologies (OPEN -8.97%) climbed 34% in November according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence. It’s benefiting from interest rate cuts and enthusiasm about an improved economy with Donald Trump’s election as the next president, and its third-quarter results were better than expected.
Making it through a crushing housing market
Opendoor’s business could completely disrupt traditional residential real estate, but it has some inherent risks. Since it buys and resells homes, it works with products that cost hundreds of thousands of dollars. Each home it buys or sells has a significant impact on the entire business. In the third quarter, it bought 3,405 homes and had 1,006 under contract. Compared with other kinds of companies, those are small numbers.
Once it gets its business off the ground and has a model that works, the cash-flow crunch won’t be a big deal. But right now, with limited homes available for sale in the worst housing market in years, Opendoor is struggling to become a viable company.
There was some progress in the third quarter. Revenue increased 41% year over year, and net loss of $78 million was better than $108 million last year. It ended the quarter with $2.1 billion in inventory, a 64% increase over last year. It’s still underperforming its pre-high-interest-rate business, but third-quarter performance was better than management’s guidance.
The faint light at the end of the tunnel
Mortgage rates had come down after interest rates were cut in September, and that spurred a temporary jump in housing sales. Mortgage rates have since started climbing again, but the Federal Reserve is likely to cut them again when it meets in about two weeks.
Opendoor sees a $1.9 trillion opportunity, and when people start selling and buying homes again, it’s well positioned to capture market share. It claims that its digital app and data insights, driven by strong machine learning and data analytics technology, makes buying and selling easier and quicker. There is reason to be confident in these claims based on its performance prior to the housing market decline.
Opendoor stock is so cheap right now, trading at only 0.3 times trailing-12-month sales and under $3 per share, that risk-tolerant investors might want to take a small position. There are reasons to be confident about its turnaround story, and the November jump signals that progress will be reflected in the stock price.
